By Bob Halstead
“Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.” This is Hanlon’s razor, and I have been repeating it to myself these last few months in an attempt to be forgiving to Global Warming exaggerators and alarmists.
But it is time for their stupidity to stop. There is enough evidence now that the exaggerated claims of the argument for Anthropogenic Global Warming have been reduced to hot air. There is malice afoot, and it has more to do with politics and large sums of money, a massive redistribution of wealth actually, than climate.
This is the sort of malice that imprisoned Galileo. The kind that believes that science (which I love) can be proclaimed and have a consensus. That believes that disbelievers are heretics and should be silenced. At least I will not be burned at the stake – too much CO2!
Where sceptics have particularly good evidence and arguments they are accused of being paid vast sums of money by the evil Oil Companies. To me, reading critically what they write, they are just older and wiser. The truly vast sums of money are going to the Anthropogenic Global Warming brigade, and mostly come from taxpayers. By the way, any Oil Company out there wants to pay me a big sum of money, please get in touch.
There are ironies. I could not resist a laugh when Al Gore was awarded an Academy Award for his farcical “An Inconvenient Truth”, the DVD of which has been distributed free to indoctrinate schoolchildren round the world. When an irate father complained that it was brainwashing, not education, and went to court to protect his child, a British judge agreed, and found the film inaccurate and alarmist. He found nine errors of fact, others have found thirty one ….The very next week Al gore wins a Nobel Prize for, well not science that is for sure, so how about “Peace”.
Perhaps it was for “World Peace”? For a while I imagined I was watching a Miss Universe Pageant, and Al was wearing a revealing swimming costume. One thing he does not reveal is why he will not debate Global Warming with a sceptical climatologist. There are many out there that would love the chance.
While this is going on he publishes a book “The Assault on Reason”. He asks “Why do reason, logic and truth seem to play a diminished role in the way America now makes important decisions?” Well, Al, try looking in the mirror. We know you failed science at school, and now you are failing logic. This is from the book:
“If you wish to go quickly, go alone. If you wish to go far, go together. …. We need to go far, quickly”.
Very logical, Al.
Unfortunately science is not well understood. Science for example NEVER proves anything. The scientific method depends on making observations and measurements, looking for a hypothesis that explains this data, then testing the hypothesis by performing further experiments to see if the hypothesis continues to work. Science can DISPROVE a hypothesis, but mere confirmation that it works for the experiments performed, or for further observations made, does not prove it. A Scientific Theory evolves, over time and many observations, when the hypothesis remains unchallenged by evidence. Science embraces the search for Truth.
What has this got to do with diving? We are bombarded with propaganda proclaiming the imminent demise of coral reefs through Global Warming and hence Coral Bleaching . Many imagine that reefs are already dead and dying and therefore are not too enthusiastic either to go diving or to fork out good money to ensure that the reefs are saved from the real threats of chemical pollution from sewage and runoff, and over-fishing.
Ocean “acidification” may also be a real problem but we are told it is already too late to do anything about it by cutting CO2 emissions. I am in favour of more research here to see exactly what is happening, and to see if we can find ways of treating the problem. Several have been suggested, none to do with Kyoto.
Whatever the doomsayers do say, I see beautiful reefs all the time, and in 2007 observed rejuvenation of damaged reefs along the Great Barrier Reef. We have not seen Coral Bleaching in Milne Bay since 1998 – Folks, that is ten years ago. The doomsayers are getting it wrong, but mainstream media do not want to know that.
How many of you read the open letter sent to the UN Secretary General at the Bali Climate conference signed by 100 prominent scientists on 12th December 2007? Among other points the letter states “Recent observations of phenomena such as glacial retreats, sea-level rise and the migration of temperature sensitive species are not evidence for abnormal climate change, for none of these changes has been shown to be outside the bounds of known natural variability”.
Amazingly the many computer climate “models” whose predictions are used for Global Warming alarmism, all produce different results none of which agree with actual measurements. On the other hand Henrik Svensmark’s remarkable research, described in his book “The Chilling Stars” does fit the evidence for climate change, linking it with changes in cosmic rays and cloud cover. Svensmark is a climate physicist who heads sun-climate research at the Danish Space Research Institute.
The IPCC was, and is, not a group of scientists. However a growing number of scientists who initially believed that catastrophic Global Warming was possible are converting to sceptics after reviewing new research. Among other things they realise the need to counter the harm being perpetrated on children by alarmists.
Even if the IPCC were all scientists they could not have a consensus – scientists would be doing experiments and taking measurements to test the hypothesis, not having a consensus. Some of them did, found that their research did not support the “consensus” and have become sceptics. A consensus is what you have if you are going to give an Academy Award, or a Nobel Prize. Silly things, they got confused.
The simplistic Global Warming scam goes something like this.
1. The climate is changing. We have looked at a few thermometers around the place, and some melting ice. Depending on what date we start from, it seems to be getting warmer. We ignore satellite temperature measurements, as they do not fit our desired outcome.
2. CO2 levels in the atmosphere are increasing, and must therefore be the cause of the warming.
3. Pollution by people is the cause of increasing atmospheric CO2.
4. Therefore people are causing Global Warming.
Confusing the picture are emotive statements about Polar bears, the snows of Mount Kilimanjiro, hurricane Katrina, – and just about anything else you can think of including, believe it or not, Tsunamis. One keen advocate listed over 600 natural events supposedly caused by Global Warming.
Thank goodness for Science. It will win through in the end simply because it is the only systematically formulated body of knowledge that does not rely ultimately on opinion, or belief.
Scientists know that measuring things is actually difficult. They have to define universal standardised scales, then instruments that can reliably record the measurements. The instruments have to be placed in similar conditions to make their readings meaningful. Every instrument, no matter how sophisticated, has an “uncertainty” associated with every measurement. If changes in the measurements recorded are less than the uncertainty, then they are worthless.
Many of the early measurements of temperature were very suspect, and the changes of temperature that were being measured were very small. Scientists are now revisiting these recordings and correcting them. It turns out it was hotter in the 1930’s than it is now …
Just because two events correlate, it does not follow that they are cause and effect. CO2 rising does not necessarily imply global warming even if temperatures are rising. The mechanism whereby rising CO2 is supposed to cause Global Warming is the “Greenhouse Effect”. This is a hypothesis, and very recently, as reported in August 2007, some clever sceptical scientists (Google Guest Post, Dr. David Evans, Science Speak, Australia) set out to see if present recorded temperature rises in the atmosphere could be caused by the Greenhouse Effect. You probably did not hear about it.
They discovered that the Greenhouse Effect from CO2 emissions would produce a signature pattern of warming that would show hot spots in the atmosphere 10km above the Earth. But when they actually measured the temperature gradients they discovered a completely different pattern.
What they did is provide evidence that DISPROVES the idea that CO2 could be the cause of a Greenhouse Warming effect. Other scientists should now repeat the experiment to determine its validity. It is also an interesting but little advertised fact that actually, although Earth’s atmospheric CO2 has been increasing, there has been no measurable rise in Earth’s temperature since 1998, when there was a large El Nino. Indeed the year up until January 2008 showed a decrease in the order of 0.6 deg. C….. Hello …??
Some other scientists who have been observing Mars and other planets have observed shrinking “Ice Caps” there too, and it seems possible that a more likely cause of any warming on Earth is to do with the Sun, Cosmic Radiation and cloud cover rather than burning coal, and very little at all to do with people.
Water vapour is a far more powerful “Greenhouse gas” than CO2.
So what is it all about? Is it good to cut back on pollution? As a general principle, yes, though we might well be encouraging coal fires when the next ice age is upon us. Certainly pollution of the oceans is disastrous and I support any efforts to stop dumping chemicals and effluent. Of course, dumping ships as dive sites is excellent!
What is behind the malice? Follow the money. Why do you think the Kyoto mob are pushing for fixed emission targets? When nations start having to pay huge fines for not meeting their emission targets think about who is actually paying, who is collecting the money, and where it is going to go to.